NL Wild Card Series Preview: Braves vs. Reds

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Braves #MixItUp

Let’s gather around the campfire and hope this team we spend hours of our lives rooting for finally gives us a postseason success story. 2001 was so long ago, but we’re a strong and resilient (not relentless tho) group that still comes back for more pain year after year hoping this will be the year that’s different. So, we ride again…

As the Braves rolled through the National League East on their way to the #2 overall record, it became very clear that a matchup with the Reds was waiting. It was the matchup Braves fans were hoping to avoid. There isn’t a single fanbase in baseball that wants to be playing the Reds in a three game series with your playoff lives on the line. The Reds pitching makes them a dangerous draw in a three game series and their offense is a lot more talented than the numbers show from this season. That said, the 2020 Braves are one of the best offensive teams of any that Braves fans have been able to watch in a long time, and for all their warts, the Braves pitching matches up similarly to the Reds offense. Strong in points, weak in others, with a lot of talent that could show up and show out.

Let’s dig in.

Offense

Team Stats

BravesReds
AVG.268.212
OBP.349.312
SLG.483.403
wOBA.355.312
wRC+12191
R348243
R/Gm5.84.05
HR10390
SB2329

Lineups

BravesReds
Ronald Acuna Jr., CFNick Senzel, CF
Freddie Freeman, 1BNick Castellanos, RF
Marcell Ozuna, DHJoey Votto, 1B
Travis d’Arnaud, CEugenio Suarez, 3B
Ozzie Albies, 2BMike Moustakas, 2B
Adam Duvall, LFArtstides Aquino, LF
Dansby Swanson, SSJesse Winker, DH
Nick Markakis, RFKyle Farmer, SS
Austin Riley, 3BCurt Casali, C

Pitching

BravesReds
Max Fried, LHP
(7-0, 2.25 ERA, 3.10 FIP)
Trevor Bauer, RHP
(5-4, 1.73 ERA, 2.88 FIP)
Ian Anderson, RHP
(3-2, 1.95 ERA, 2.54 FIP)
Luis Castillo, RHP
(4-6, 3.21 ERA, 2.65 FIP)
Kyle Wright, RHP
(2-4, 5.21 ERA, 5.90 FIP)
Sonny Gray, RHP
(5-3, 3.70 ERA, 3.05 FIP)

Projections

ZiPS Game By Game Projections

GameReds StarterBraves StarterReds Win ProbBraves Win Prob
1Trevor BauerMax Fried36.70%63.30%
2Luis CastilloIan Anderson42.30%57.70%
3Sonny GrayKyle Wright45.00%55.00%

ZiPS Series Outcome Projection

OutcomeProb
Braves win in 2 Games36.50%
Braves win in 3 Games26.40%
Braves Total62.90%
Reds win in 2 Games15.50%
Reds win in 3 Games21.60%
Reds Total37.10%

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