Let’s gather around the campfire and hope this team we spend hours of our lives rooting for finally gives us a postseason success story. 2001 was so long ago, but we’re a strong and resilient (not relentless tho) group that still comes back for more pain year after year hoping this will be the year that’s different. So, we ride again…
As the Braves rolled through the National League East on their way to the #2 overall record, it became very clear that a matchup with the Reds was waiting. It was the matchup Braves fans were hoping to avoid. There isn’t a single fanbase in baseball that wants to be playing the Reds in a three game series with your playoff lives on the line. The Reds pitching makes them a dangerous draw in a three game series and their offense is a lot more talented than the numbers show from this season. That said, the 2020 Braves are one of the best offensive teams of any that Braves fans have been able to watch in a long time, and for all their warts, the Braves pitching matches up similarly to the Reds offense. Strong in points, weak in others, with a lot of talent that could show up and show out.
Let’s dig in.
Offense
Team Stats
| Braves | Reds | |
|---|---|---|
| AVG | .268 | .212 |
| OBP | .349 | .312 |
| SLG | .483 | .403 |
| wOBA | .355 | .312 |
| wRC+ | 121 | 91 |
| R | 348 | 243 |
| R/Gm | 5.8 | 4.05 |
| HR | 103 | 90 |
| SB | 23 | 29 |
Lineups
| Braves | Reds |
|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr., CF | Nick Senzel, CF |
| Freddie Freeman, 1B | Nick Castellanos, RF |
| Marcell Ozuna, DH | Joey Votto, 1B |
| Travis d’Arnaud, C | Eugenio Suarez, 3B |
| Ozzie Albies, 2B | Mike Moustakas, 2B |
| Adam Duvall, LF | Artstides Aquino, LF |
| Dansby Swanson, SS | Jesse Winker, DH |
| Nick Markakis, RF | Kyle Farmer, SS |
| Austin Riley, 3B | Curt Casali, C |
Pitching
| Braves | Reds |
|---|---|
| Max Fried, LHP (7-0, 2.25 ERA, 3.10 FIP) | Trevor Bauer, RHP (5-4, 1.73 ERA, 2.88 FIP) |
| Ian Anderson, RHP (3-2, 1.95 ERA, 2.54 FIP) | Luis Castillo, RHP (4-6, 3.21 ERA, 2.65 FIP) |
| Kyle Wright, RHP (2-4, 5.21 ERA, 5.90 FIP) | Sonny Gray, RHP (5-3, 3.70 ERA, 3.05 FIP) |
Projections
ZiPS Game By Game Projections
| Game | Reds Starter | Braves Starter | Reds Win Prob | Braves Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor Bauer | Max Fried | 36.70% | 63.30% |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | Ian Anderson | 42.30% | 57.70% |
| 3 | Sonny Gray | Kyle Wright | 45.00% | 55.00% |
ZiPS Series Outcome Projection
| Outcome | Prob |
|---|---|
| Braves win in 2 Games | 36.50% |
| Braves win in 3 Games | 26.40% |
| Braves Total | 62.90% |
| Reds win in 2 Games | 15.50% |
| Reds win in 3 Games | 21.60% |
| Reds Total | 37.10% |
