NL Division Series Preview: Braves vs. Marlins

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Adam Duvall
Braves outfielder Adam Duvall hits a two-run homer in the 8th inning to give Atlanta a 5-0 lead in Game 2 of the National League wild card playoff series against the Cincinnati Reds Thursday, Oct 1, 2020, at Truist Park in Atlanta. The Braves beat the Reds 5-0 to advance to the division series. (Curtis Compton / Curtis.Compton@ajc.com)

Wow. So we finally remember what it’s like to win a playoff series. That was fun. Hopefully just step one in this march through October to end this weird season.

The Reds came and went without scoring a run and now we turn our sights to a team we know much better. The Braves have already faced the Marlins 10 times this season, going 6-4 against them on the year and capped it off by winning 3 out of 4 against them to put the division to bed late in the season.

While these two teams have already met 10 times, the Marlins only faced the Braves with Ronald Acuña and Ozzie Albies both in the lineup five times and the Braves won four of those matchups, including a 29 run outburst in Ozzie’s first game off the injured list.

Offense

Team Stats

BravesMarlins
AVG.268.244
OBP.349.319
SLG.483.384
wOBA.355.308
wRC+12195
R348263
R/Gm5.84.38
HR10360
SB2351

Lineups

BravesMarlins
Ronald Acuna Jr., CFJon Berti, 2B
Freddie Freeman, 1BJesus Aguilar, DH
Marcell Ozuna, DHGarrett Cooper, 1B
Travis d’Arnaud, CBrian Anderson, 3B
Ozzie Albies, 2BMiguel Rojas, SS
Dansby Swanson, SSCorey Dickerson, LF
Adam Duvall, LFLewis Brinson, RF
Nick Markakis, RFChad Wallach, C
Austin Riley, 3BMagneuris Sierra, CF

Pitching

BravesMarlins
Max Fried, LHP
(7-0, 2.25 ERA, 3.10 FIP)
Sandy Alcantara, RHP
(3-2, 3.00 ERA, 3.72 FIP)
Ian Anderson, RHP
(3-2, 1.95 ERA, 2.54 FIP)
Pablo Lopez, RHP
(6-4, 3.61 ERA, 3.09 FIP)
Kyle Wright, RHP
(2-4, 5.21 ERA, 5.90 FIP)
Sixto Sanchez, RHP
(3-2, 3.46 ERA, 3.50 FIP)
TBDTBD
TBDTBD

Projections

ZiPS Game By Game Projections

GameMarlins StarterBraves StarterMarlins Win ProbBraves Win Prob
1Sandy AlcantaraMax Fried33.3%66.7%
2Pablo LopezIan Anderson33.5%65.5%
3Sixto SanchezKyle Wright41.7%58.3%
4TBDTBD33.7%66.3%
5TBDTBD32.0%68.0%

ZiPS Series Outcome Projection

OutcomeProb
Braves win in 3 Games25.9%
Braves win in 4 Games29.5%
Braves win in 5 Games21.5%
Braves Total76.8%
Marlins win in 3 Games4.7%
Marlins win in 4 Games8.4%
Marlins win in 5 Games10.1%
Marlins Total23.2%

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